What is the difference between the three lenses?

Most votes ranks by support times door count (expected votes, for seat-relevant volume). Most Efficient ranks by the demographic-model blend (most receptive doors per hour, for efficiency). Best Opportunity ranks by the Opportunity Score, a separate model built from GE 2024 competitiveness and LE 2024 transfer data.

How long will a canvass take?

The session plan estimates hours from the door counts of your top EDs at a planning rate of 60 doors per hour.

Help / Canvass Planner

Help · How-to · Analyst

How to use the Canvass Planner

Q: Do I need a subscription?

Yes. The Canvass Planner is an Analyst feature; an active Analyst subscription is required to load constituency scores.

Q: Are these real vote counts?

No. Ireland publishes no vote counts at Electoral-Division level. Both lenses are model estimates — one from Census 2022 demographics and GE 2024 first-preference patterns, the other from GE 2024 competitiveness and LE 2024 transfer patterns.

Q: Why does an area show no Opportunity Score at all?

Three different reasons, and the panel tells you which: your party already holds a seat there, your party did not contest the constituency in GE 2024, or your party contested it but the LE 2024 transfer data shows no positive transfer signal in any Local Electoral Area there. The third case can happen even for a genuinely close GE 2024 result — a strong first-preference position does not always come with a matching transfer signal. Try the Most votes or Most Efficient lens instead.

Q: What do the ◐ and ↗ markers mean?

◐ marks an area whose Opportunity Score was not compared against any alternative in that constituency — it is the only area that cleared the criteria, not necessarily the strongest. ↗ marks an area that is transfer-growth ground rather than the party’s strongest demographic base there — worth targeting for the transfer opportunity, but read the base-support numbers separately.

Q: What does "Transfer advantage observed" mean?

It appears on an Opportunity Score result when your party over-performed on transfers in that ED’s Local Electoral Area in the verified LE 2024 count — a bigger share of transfers than its first-preference share, with a 5% evidence floor.

Q: Where does the data come from?

Census 2022 (CSO), GE 2024 result books (Houses of the Oireachtas), and LE 2024 result books (Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage).

The Canvass Planner ranks every Electoral Division (ED) in a constituency by how likely a door-knock is to pay off for your party — and, separately, by transfer opportunity. It shows you, concretely, where to send your canvassers and why. This guide covers the desktop and mobile workflow, the two models behind the scores, and the questions teams ask most.

◎ Open the Canvass Planner →

Before you start: the Canvass Planner is an Analyst feature — you need an active Analyst subscription to load constituency scores. The map, party picker and constituency search all live in the Elections layer.

What it is

Most canvassing plans start from a paper map and a hunch. The Canvass Planner replaces the hunch with two independent models, viewed as three ranking lenses. Pick a party and a constituency. The planner ranks every ED, paints them on the map, and bundles the top ones into a ready-to-run session plan.

It targets — it does not count votes. Ireland counts no ballots at ED level. Both models estimate from demographics and past results. Read them alongside your own local knowledge.

Two models, three lenses

The planner runs two separate models and lets you switch between them. They don't always agree — an area can be strong support and weak transfer opportunity, or the reverse — which is deliberate: they measure different things.

The demographic model — "Most votes" and "Most Efficient"

A Ridge regression across all 43 constituencies links Census 2022 demographics to GE 2024 first-preference shares, blended with how easy an area is to canvass:

Support Potential (50%) — predicted first-preference share for your party in that ED.
Density (30%) — dwelling count. Dense estates give more doors per hour; scattered rural townlands give fewer.
Access (20%) — road-type accessibility, a proxy for how walkable the ED is for a canvassing team.

Most votes ranks by support × doors — expected votes, for seat arithmetic. Most Efficient ranks by the blend itself — the most receptive doors per hour, for when time is the binding constraint.

The Opportunity Score — "Best Opportunity"

A separate model, built from GE 2024 competitiveness and verified LE 2024 transfer counts. It answers a different question from the demographic model: not "where is our support," but "where would a transfer-focused push change the outcome."

🎯 Potential Gain (40%) — the size of the transfer prize available in that area's Local Electoral Area (LEA).
🏁 Competitiveness (25%) — how close your party's best non-elected GE 2024 candidate came to quota. Zero here can mean several different things — see the FAQ below.
🔄 Transfer Advantage (20%) — whether your party over-performed on transfers (took a bigger share of transfers than its first-preference share) in that ED's LEA, in the verified LE 2024 count.
👥 Household Reach (15%) — the door count in that specific ED, not the whole LEA.

An Evidence badge is shown alongside each Opportunity Score — it reflects how much supporting data backs the number, but it never changes the ranking. A high-opportunity, low-evidence area is exactly where a campaign should explore, not something the model suppresses.

Reading the markers

Two single-character markers can appear on an Opportunity Score row or its hover card — read them before trusting a top-ranked number at face value:

◐ — only eligible area here. This area's score wasn't compared against any real alternative in the constituency; it's the one area that cleared the criteria, not necessarily a strong one in absolute terms.
↗ — transfer-growth area. This area is not your party's strongest demographic base in the constituency — the opportunity here comes specifically from the transfer signal, not from base support. Worth targeting for that reason, but don't read it as "our strongest area."

When you see no Opportunity Score results

An empty "Best Opportunity" list means one of three different things, and the panel tells you which:

Your party already holds a seat here. No second-seat transfer opportunity met the criteria — try "Most votes" or "Most Efficient" instead.
Your party didn't contest this constituency in GE 2024. There's no first-preference base to measure transfer opportunity against.
Your party ran and lost, but no LE 2024 transfer data shows a positive signal anywhere in the constituency. This can happen even for a genuinely close GE 2024 result — a strong first-preference position doesn't always come with a matching transfer signal. It's a real, measured absence, not a data gap: a dedicated review of this exact behaviour (July 2026) found it accounts for the large majority of cases where a competitive party shows no transfer opportunity. Try "Most votes" or "Most Efficient" — those lenses use the demographic model, which doesn't depend on transfer data at all.

Step by step — desktop

1. Open — in the Elections layer, click the amber ◎ Canvassing pill.
2. Pick your party — choose from the chips (SF, FF, FG, Lab, GP, SD, PBP, Aontú).
3. Choose a constituency — type in the search box or click one on the map.
4. Choose a lens — Most votes, Most Efficient, or Best Opportunity. The map repaints to match.
5. Read "Top areas to canvass" — each row shows the ED name and its score for the current lens. Hover any ED for a card that breaks the score into its full components.
6. Run the session plan — the summary totals the top areas' expected votes (or doors) and shows the hours needed at 60 doors/hour.

On mobile & tablet

The planner works on all screen sizes. Open it from the layers panel (☰ → Elections → Canvassing). On mobile it opens as a bottom sheet — tap the amber ◎ button to collapse or reopen it. The constituency card sits at the top, collapsed to essentials; tap ▾ to expand it. In portrait mode you'll see a one-time "rotate for more room" hint.

Where to send your canvassers — and why

Match the lens and the EDs to your campaign's situation:

Default to "Most votes." Seats are won on volume of first preferences. This lens points at the biggest reservoirs of likely support.
When hours are the binding constraint, switch to "Most Efficient." A high-support rural ED can still waste an evening if doors are 400m apart — this lens prices that in via the density and access weights.
For transfer-dependent seats, switch to "Best Opportunity." This is a different model from the other two — it looks at where a conversation could move lower-preference ballots, not just firm up your base.
Mind the support-vs-density trade-off. Below the top of the list you'll choose between support-rich rural townlands (loyal but slow) and denser estates with thinner margins (fast but softer). The hover card's breakdown shows which way each ED leans.
Always overlay local knowledge. Both models are a starting hypothesis, not gospel.

FAQ

Do I need a subscription?

Yes. The Canvass Planner is an Analyst feature. You need an active Analyst subscription to load constituency scores.

Are these real vote counts?

No — Ireland publishes no vote counts at Electoral-Division level. Both models are estimates: the demographic model from Census 2022 and GE 2024 first-preference patterns, the Opportunity Score from GE 2024 competitiveness and LE 2024 transfer patterns.

What's the difference between the three lenses?

"Most votes" and "Most Efficient" both come from the demographic model (support × density × access) — they rank the same numbers two different ways. "Best Opportunity" is a separate model entirely, built from transfer data, and can disagree with the other two.

Why does an area show no Opportunity Score at all?

Already-won seat, no GE 2024 candidacy, or — most commonly for a genuinely competitive party — real GE 2024 competitiveness with no positive LE 2024 transfer signal found anywhere in the constituency. See "When you see no Opportunity Score results" above.

What do the ◐ and ↗ markers mean?

◐ means the area wasn't compared against any real alternative — it's the only one that qualified. ↗ means the area is transfer-growth ground, not your party's strongest base there. Both are caveats on how to read a top-ranked score, not warnings that it's wrong.

What does "Transfer advantage observed" mean?

It appears when your party over-performed on transfers in that ED's Local Electoral Area in the verified LE 2024 count — a bigger share of transfers than its first-preference share, with a 5% evidence floor.

Where does the data come from?

Census 2022 (CSO) for demographics; GE 2024 result books (Houses of the Oireachtas) for first preferences and competitiveness; LE 2024 result books (Department of Housing, Local Government & Heritage) for the verified transfer counts behind the Opportunity Score.

How accurate is it?

Accuracy varies by area, party and lens. Both models work best as a relative ranking within a constituency, not as an absolute prediction. Always read them alongside local knowledge.

Can I use it on my phone at the doors?

Yes. On mobile the planner becomes a bottom sheet with a floating button. The constituency card collapses to a tappable top card. Rotate to landscape for more map.

Get started

Open the planner, pick your party and a constituency, and start from the top of the ranked list — "Most votes" for volume, "Most Efficient" for efficiency, "Best Opportunity" when transfers decide the seat.

◎ Open the Canvass Planner Elections map Constituencies

Data: Census 2022 (CSO) · GE 2024 (Houses of the Oireachtas) · LE 2024 (Dept of Housing, Local Government & Heritage). The Canvass Planner is a modelled targeting tool, not a vote count — use alongside local knowledge.