How to use the Canvassing Yield Planner

The Yield Planner ranks every Electoral Division (ED) in a constituency by how many votes a door-knock is likely to return for your party — then tells you, concretely, where to send your canvassers and why. This guide covers the workflow on desktop and mobile, the model behind the scores, and the questions teams ask most.

◎ Open the Canvassing Yield Planner →

What it is

Most canvassing plans start from a paper map and a hunch. The Yield Planner replaces the hunch with a per-ED yield score: a single 0–100 number for each Electoral Division, estimating how receptive that area is to your party. Pick a party and a constituency, and every ED is ranked, painted on the map, and bundled into a ready-to-run session plan.

It is a targeting model, not a vote count — there are no ballots counted at ED level in Ireland. The score is an estimate built from demographics and past results, designed to be read alongside your own local knowledge.

The model: what "yield" measures

Each ED's yield is a fixed-weight blend of three signals, so scores are comparable across every constituency:

• Affinity (50%) — a Ridge regression across all 43 constituencies, correlating Census 2022 demographics with GE 2024 first-preference shares. It predicts your party's likely first-preference share in each ED.
• Density (30%) — dwelling count. Dense estates mean more doors per hour; scattered rural townlands mean fewer.
• Access (20%) — road-type accessibility, a proxy for how walkable the ED is for a canvassing team.

Step by step — desktop

• 1. Open — in the Elections layer, click the amber ◎ Canvassing pill.
• 2. Pick your party — from the chips (SF, FF, FG, Lab, GP, SD, PBP, Aontú).
• 3. Choose a constituency — type in the search box or click one on the map. It paints that constituency's EDs as a magenta heat map (brighter = higher yield).
• 4. Read "Top areas to canvass" — each row shows the ED, its score and a ⚡ if it's transfer-winnable. Hover any ED for a card breaking the score into affinity / density / access, plus door count.
• 5. Run the session plan — the summary totals the top areas' expected votes (or doors) and the hours that is at 60 doors/hour.

On mobile & tablet

The planner is fully responsive. Open it from the layers panel (☰ → Elections → Canvassing). The Yield Planner becomes a bottom sheet — tap the amber ◎ button to collapse or reopen it. The constituency card sits at the top, collapsed to the essentials; tap ▾ to expand it. In portrait you'll see a one-time "rotate for more room" hint.

Two ways to rank: "Most votes" vs "Best per door"

The same EDs, two lenses — toggle between them at the top of the list:

⚡ Transfer-winnable EDs

Under PR-STV, transfers decide the last seats. An ED is flagged ⚡ winnable when both hold:

• Your party is in the contention band there (yield roughly 0.45–0.80) — close enough to fight for; and
• In that ED's Local Electoral Area, your party over-performed on transfers in the verified LE 2024 count — it pulled in a bigger share of transfers than its first-preference share (with a 5% evidence floor).

Where should I send my canvassers — and why

This is the decision the planner exists to make. Match the lens and the EDs to your campaign's situation:

• Default to "Most votes." Seats are won on volume of first preferences; this lens points at the biggest reservoirs of likely support.
• When hours are the binding constraint, switch to "Best per door." A high-affinity rural ED can still be a poor use of an evening if doors are 400m apart — "Best per door" prices that in via the density and access weights.
• For transfer-dependent seats, lead with ⚡ winnable EDs — where a conversation moves lower-preference ballots, not just firms up your base.
• Mind the affinity-vs-density trade-off. Below the top of the list you'll choose between affinity-rich rural townlands (loyal but slow) and denser estates with thinner margins (fast but softer). The hover card's three-bar breakdown shows which way each ED leans.
• Always overlay local knowledge. The model is a starting hypothesis, not gospel.

FAQ

Do I need a subscription?

Yes. The Yield Planner is an Analyst feature; an active Analyst subscription is required to load constituency scores.

Are these real vote counts?

No — Ireland publishes no vote counts at Electoral-Division level. The yield score is a model estimate of receptiveness, built from Census 2022 demographics and GE 2024 first-preference patterns.

What's the difference between "Most votes" and "Best per door"?

"Most votes" ranks by affinity × door count (expected votes, best for maximising seat-relevant volume). "Best per door" ranks by the yield blend (most receptive doors per hour, best when volunteer time is scarce).

What does the ⚡ icon mean?

It marks a transfer-winnable ED: your party is in the contention band there and over-performed on transfers in that ED's Local Electoral Area in the verified LE 2024 count.

Where does the data come from?

Census 2022 (CSO) for demographics; GE 2024 result books (Houses of the Oireachtas) for first preferences; LE 2024 result books (Department of Housing, Local Government & Heritage) for the verified transfer counts behind the ⚡ flag.

How accurate is it?

Model accuracy varies by area and party. It's strongest as a relative ranking within a constituency, and should always be read alongside local knowledge.

Can I use it on my phone at the doors?

Yes. The planner is responsive: the Yield Planner becomes a bottom sheet with a floating button, and the constituency card collapses to a tappable top card. Rotate to landscape for more map.

Related articles

• Exploring the map and switching data layers
• Using the Rankings panel
• What is IrelandInsights?
• Ireland elections map